Fit to be Tied...Germany and England an Early Exit

WOW! Great games from the first two groups to close out A and B. The Soccerist was lucky enough to call the Uruguay win by the bare minimum and correctly predict who would move forward to round two! I am going to boast these first predictions because I think I won’t fare as well with Groups C and D but I will give it a go anyways.

Group C is fit to be tied as no one seems to be able to win a game in this group. Slovenia has the only victory in the group as cup favorite England had two surprising and disappointing ties. Many soccer pundits including myself thought England would easily win Group C and make a run to the finals. Instead England tied the United States on a grave error of GK Green, since replaced by James, and failed to get a victory against Algiers. On paper England has all the ingredients to move up to the next round with a frugal defensive line and superb talent like Rooney. But the English have yet to score more than one goal in group play and were not exactly burning it up in matches leading to the cup. Injuries although difficult for any team are no excuse for their performance so far especially when one considers that there in one of the easier if not more accessible world cup groups that include three countries with few world cup wins or even appearances. One would easily believe that England can make a comeback and finally win one especially when their continuance demands it.

Part of me believes Rooney is due to show the talent he is capable of and for England to put together a couple of goals and win. But my gut tells me that this June 23, 2010 will live in infamy for two great European powers. I am going out on a limb and predict the Brits fall just short against my better judgment. Why? I think my thoughts lie with the general decline of European squads so far and thinking the tournament will see some early favorites exit the stage. That said both England and Germany have enough of a team to overcome these monumental obstacle against not so fantastic opponents. Yet I think one if not two will fail to move.

So in the other Group C match, I will be cheering for my native United States to beat Algiers and reach the coveted fourth cup game. I think the Yanks have momentum and will play with a heavy chip on their shoulder due to the stolen goal in the Slovenia game and that will be enough to win their last group match.

Look for Slovenia to at least conserve a tie since that seems to be an English pattern at this cup. However, someone on the British side should rise up to the occassion but even if they do, USA will somehow win their game and actually win Group C. YES YOU HEARD RIGHT, USA WILL WIN GROUP C, SINCE USA WILL EDGE ENGLAND IN GOALS SCORED - CRAZY I KNOW!!!!!!!

In Group D another major power is in danger as well. Germany will face group leader Ghana and will hope Serbia doesn’t achieve a lopsided victory versus the Socceroos. Serbia has a chance to win their game against Australia but they are too clumsy in attack to score more than two goals. Thus I think the key to the group lies in the Ghana and Germany game where the Teutons must pull out a victory to continue. Germany is missing superstar Ballack who was sidelined by a Ghanese defender Boateng whose brother of the same last name plays for Germany. And due to a red card against Serbia, Germany is also missing Klose their prolific goal scorer for this game as well. But what really worries me for Germany? Germany has already made travel arrangements to return to Berlin…huh? Someone should fire who ever made that decision. I think it is an ominous sign and Ghana gets a valuable tie to send Germany on their predestined and apparently already arranged trip back home. Plus, Ghana might be the only African representative in this cup moving forward and would be a shame if it didn’t happen.

It is amazing to even write about the possibility of England and Germany leaving early in the cup. But the possibility does exist and is very plausible for both teams. Missing Klose and facing a defensive team like Ghana, Germany has to improve from their last outing. The English have shown an inability to finish games and now will face a team that only requires what England regularly offers which is a tie. The 2002 World Cup had a similar situation when Uruguay and Argentina did not qualify past group stage and Italy lost at the opening of Round 2. France is out. Will Germany and England follow? Maybe not both but one of the two is on the verge of going home.

Argentina Subs to Shine?

Group B has few story lines with the exception of Argentina and the superstars like Messi on the team but the group has been predictable. Argentina is practically assured to advance and win the group. They will rest many of their players to face Greece. Although seven previous starters will sit, the sub players might have a spectacular showing. Champion League hero Diego Milito will start in place of Higuain and a hungry Aguero will replace Tevez. What will happen if Milito, Messi and Aguero score early or even succeed in multiple goals? This might create some locker room controversy within a very united and content group. It will be fun to watch.

South Korea will end group play against Nigeria. I like South Korea. Their lightening fast, hustle on every ball, deadly on free kicks and before the loss against Argentina, Koreans were riding a long winning streak. South Korea could easily score two goals on the shell shocked Super Eagles as the Nigerians are known as. I was wrong in thinking before the start of the cup that Nigeria would easily end up second in group. South Korea’s game helped change my mind and I think they will move on to aggravate Uruguay in round two!

Fighting for First...and French Disgrace

The groups stage is about to end and half of all teams will enjoy their last outing before leaving South Africa. Many of the eliminated teams won’t have long trips to make as the African squads have had a poor showing. Starting Tuesday there will be a hectic four games a day schedule that will finish up group play for two groups each day. You are going to have to switch back and forth to get scores of each group game as both games will be playing at the same time.

Group A will be up first with Uruguay and Mexico playing for first place in group but the teams are really vying to make sure they don’t face Argentina. The second place team of group A will likely face Argentina at the start of the second round and thus both look to avoid the match up. Both teams should advance because of their positive goal difference but this game may be very hard fought. Mexico always brings a lot of hustle but Uruguay is looking to make a statement and they have the wherewithal to defeat Mexico. It will be a close game with Uruguay barely edging Mexico.

In the second Group A game, the host South Africa faces the scandalous and disgraced French team. France was last world cup runner up but is having their worst tournament in history. The complete French debacle should not be a surprise if you look at the previous signs leading to the cup. Although France won in 1998 and reached the finals in 2006, the team has aged and qualified for the cup on a very controversial hand ball goal. Their coach Domenech has publicly made it known that he was leaving the team after the cup regardless of the outcome and voiced his displeasure for coaching the team…ouch! A few players might have a more on their mind than the cup as some players are currently being investigated of having relations with an underage prostitute at a Paris nightclub that four players frequented. If all that was not enough, the French players hate their coach and have recently refused to practice. French coach Domenech used astrology to select players and did not bring Scorpios because June would be a bad month for them…apparently he read the charts wrong.

I am hoping South Africa gets a win and dispatches the French team with a humiliating loss. Both teams do have a chance to still make it but I think it is very unlikely. If South Africa cannot win plus score at least 3 goals, they will be the first host ever to not advance to the second round. Sad end for bafana bafana but I am sure the vuvuaelas will go on!

WORLD CUP 2010 POWER RANKINGS

So far there have been few surprises and only two upsets – although it was massive if you were on the Iberian bandwagon. (Note that The Soccerist made the case against Spain – go back for the read and it explains why the loss against Switzerland is not such a shock). The only anomalies so far have been the draw United States achieved against favored England, the surprising bold play by North Korea, Germany’ loss to Serbia and of course Switzerland upsetting Spain. Maybe the intangibles have been the real story of this world cup. Vuvuzelas, freezing temperatures and a controversial ball has been getting equal headlines. France blamed their loss on those horribly annoying vuvuzela horns that are an African favorite and the English GK blamed Jubalani, the official ball, as the reason for the fluke American goal. But in the coming weeks, the cold will be the real story and we might even see a game played on a snow covered field. It would be a first for world cups but not for soccer. Look out for a bright orange Jubalani ball!! Oh I can just imagine the complaints.

• Rankings are of the top 16 teams since only 16 advance to the second round.

1. Brazil

Brazil is the most prolific world cup team with five titles. They
exude confidence and normally offer a great display of skill. But this is not the usual Brazil. Coach Dunga has them playing Italian style defensive soccer and they lack superstars. Maicon, a defender, is their best player. Where has joga bonito gone? There still dangerous and very few teams have enough to beat them.

2. Argentina

Argentina has an inexperienced diva coach whose more infamous
than famous and he is not quite sure which are the best ten players to accompany Messi. That said, Argentina is loaded with talent. Their second and third squad has an equal chance to win this cup. If they can assemble themselves, few teams can overcome them.

3. Holland

Holland is often overlooked as a serious contender but the Dutch
squad is solid team with a strong defense, a midfield led by super star Sneijder and efficient forwards. These are one of my WC favorites and will get better when Robben returns.

4. Spain

Spain was everyone’s favorite but were upset by the Swiss in their
first showing. The loss may be a good thing for Spain and I think they still have enough talent to go far in the tourney but not win it all. They might meet Brazil in the second round if they finish second in the group. Early upset in the making but who?

5. Germany

Germany started strong on sheer goal production but their main
stars are waning and Australia was not a good measure for the team. Their loss to Serbia was a shock and their not out of the woods yet. Germany is disciplined, methodical team that plays well together but look for them to slide eventually.

6. Chile

Chile achieved their first win in 48 years and coach Bielsa is a very
skilled coach looking to make Chile the world cup dark horse. They now have a chance to win the group but may face Brazil in the second round and their record against Brazil is abysmal.

7. Uruguay

This two time world champion has not reached the late stages of
world cup in almost twenty years but may be en route to change that. Stingy back line and a constant scoring threat in Forlan.

8. Mexico

Their effort and heart is unmatched. Mexico hustles for every ball and
make the most of their opportunities. They are currently second in their group due to goal difference and could climb up the rankings with a win over Uruguay on Tuesday.

9. Paraguay

Off to a fantastic start and lead their group. I think they have good
chance to go to the quarterfinals and even beyond.

10. Portugal

They need more from Ronaldo. Last group game against Brazil
should reveal where they really stand.

11. Italy

Italy is an aging squad that has suffered many injuries of star
players like Pirlo. Tied games and close matches are an Italian trait but not against teams like New Zealand. May exit in the second round.

12. South Korea

Great start for South Korea and may well go on to the second
round. Their speed is amazing and deadly on free kicks. Loss to Argentina could happen to any team in this cup.

13. USA

Americans deserve a higher ranking but Mali referee robbed them
of a win and should be leading their group. I think US advances and has a chance to make it to the quarterfinals.

14. England

England was one my cup favorites to win but have been a
disappointment so far. They will have a chance to redeem themselves against Slovenia.

15. Japan

Balanced team whose only loss was at the hands of Netherlands
That lead the group and ranked third on my list.

16. Ghana

Ghana is the only African nation with a victory and opportunity to
advance to the second round.

Undefeated

European powerhouses like England, France and Italy have yet to win a single game and their chances of moving forward in the tournament are looking slim. Italy has the strongest possibility to move past the group rounds but look ready to go home.

Meanwhile, CONMEBOL teams from South America are undefeated in group play and perennial favorites Brazil and Argentina could have enough to meet in the finals. Each respective South American squad leads their group and their chances to reach the quarterfinals are promising. Paraguay and Uruguay have a solid defense and have shown to have the ability to score. Both of the “guay’ teams vastly improved in their second game and may finish first in groups they were not favored to.

South American teams have a rich world cup history and have won a total of 9 championships with Brazil leading the way. Yet 2010 seems like a revelation for the Latin Americans at the expense of European teams. Most of the players from South America are the stars of European leagues and their participation is on the rise. Take for example Champions League winner Inter Milan who did not have a single Italian starter on their squad.

It could be a fluke. European teams have won two of the last three cups. However, this has been the worst performances ever by UEFA teams and the best showing for South American teams so far. The ever growing influx of Latin players into Italy, England and France must and will have an impact. It is also significant that all the CONMEBOL squads play European style soccer and their playing the Euro style better than the original.

This South Africa World Cup was the first to be hosted by an African nation and apart from vuvuzelas, the story of this cup may be the success of South American teams…I am even inclined to predict we may see an all South American Semi Finals.

Just Hours Away – Preview of Group B and C

Argentina and England are two teams of note that open their respective group play today.

In Group B, Argentina will face Nigeria for the third time in world cup play. Argentina has won both previous meetings against the Super Eagles as the Nigerians fancy themselves. This game should see Argentina make it three in a row with a team that is far more talented and has super stars like Lionel Messi and Higuain on their side.

Although past games between the two nations have been tight affairs. Argentine coach Maradona is expected to line up three forwards including the two previous players mentioned along with Carlos Tevez. Debut games are normally difficult and Argentina might be making a mistake to place such an offensive team. Nigeria may give Argentina fits in the middle of the field. The referee will probably be a factor in this game as I suspect he will be harsh on fouls against Messi and Tevez. Quite possible this game will have the very first penalty of the tournament and a lot of yellow cards will fly.

Before we get to see the promising Messi, South Korea and Greece will meet at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium. Have not seen either of these teams play except for highlights but Greece has not won a friendly in their preparation and believe South Korea might have a good showing in the cup. Your guess is as good as mine but I think Koreans win.

In Group C, England versus United States will meet after a sixty year hiatus. Last meeting between the two teams was in 1950 with an American victory. A repeat Yankee victory is very unlikely. I like the Brits not only in this game but one of my candidates to win it all.

First day of cup had very few goals and lackluster performances. I am expecting the second day to be completely different, especially when two very talented teams like England and Argentina play in their respective games.

Bafana Bafana strike first…

No more speculating. No more talk.

South Africa World Cup 2010 finally started with the host country South Africa scoring the cup’s first goal and achieving a draw against a very disappointed Mexico squad.

The controversial Adidas official ball Jabulani rolled to open the cup at Soccer City Stadium in Johannesburg as host country South Africa faced a young and spirited Mexico. The boys, as locals call them, seemed frozen with nerves as the game got underway. Mexico had several opportunities to score in the first half but failed to get the ball past South African goalie Khune. This was definitely a game that Mexico could have gathered 3 valuable points yet fell short of the most crucial feat in soccer which is scoring goals. South Africa barely tested a very indecisive Mexican goalkeeper in Conejo Perez and only clearly reached the opposing goal posts twice but was able to connect in a beautiful goal by Tshabalala on a counter attack and almost scored again with a ball that hit the post. Mexico did not despair and tied the game with a Rafa Marquez goal in the 79th minute. Although Mexico salvaged a point instead of a loss, this was probably their easiest match as they now face Uruguay and France in Group A.

The other match of Group A pitted to past world champions in Uruguay and France. What a snoozer! Both teams were extremely cautious and seemed content with a draw in arguably the most difficult game for both squads. The two draws in the group give everyone the same opportunity to advance.

Group A might ultimately be a futile attempt as winners from this group face Group B winners that will probably be Argentina and Nigeria. Good possibility that one or even two past world cup champs will suffer a very early exit from the tournament. So they might as well enjoy their time while it lasts.

Bielsa thinks ahead

Chile’s national coach Marcelo Bielsa assures that star striker Humberto Suazo will play next Wednesday against Honduras in their inaugural match. The talented forward has been nursing a hamstring injury that he suffered in a preparation friendly last month and was expected to miss the first two games for Chile. However, the Argentine Bielsa was adamant that Suazo play against Honduras.

The real story should be why Bielsa will not save his star player, especially against a winnable opponent like Honduras. My thinking is that cerebral Marcelo desperately wants not only to win this game but get a favorable goal difference. Keep in mind that Chile plays in the same group with cup favorites Spain and one of the two teams that will move forward from this group will likely face Brazil in the second round. Conventional thinking is that Chile is playing for second place in this group and likely will face Brazil from Group G. Chile has an abysmal record against powerhouse Brazil and Marcelo would rather take his chances at upsetting Spain in group play than face “joga bonito” in round 2.
Group H will be interesting to watch as Chile might be a world cup surprise and Spain will have to demonstrate its worthy of being considered a cup favorite.

A few words about Spain…

Analysts and experts have been jumping on the Iberian band wagon for the upcoming World Cup 2010 in South Africa. The Spanish league has been center stage on worldwide coverage through Barcelona and Real Madrid. True the Spanish team has very talented players like Villa, Xavi, Torres and Iker Casillas but they are all returning players that failed to reach the quarter finals in 2006. A talented team that will miss Iniesta and his goal feeding passes. The unfortunate fact is no Spanish team has ever reached the finals and only once did it reach the semi finals. Mind you, only 7 teams have won a World Cup and most of those teams accomplished it initially by winning at home (Spain missed its chance in 1982). Additionally victor countries like Brazil, Argentina, and France won a world cup after having reached the final before their ultimate victory. Others like Uruguay or Italy won the world cup as hosts in the early history of the FIFA tournament. I am not suggesting it is impossible but it has never been done before and past world cups tell a completely different story about the fate of upstarts. Could there be a new winner in 2010? Most definitely; but the likely candidate should be Netherlands who continually tease their fans with a championship only to lose in the final game. More so to my point, Netherlands lost both finals to very talented host countries in Germany and Argentina.

I know, many of you don’t like history. Well then consider competition and world cup experience. Many follow Barcelona and Madrid. But those two teams play in one of the least competitive leagues in the western world. Brazil, Argentina, Italy and England have more competitive leagues where there are more than just two perennial winners like the ones mentioned in Spain. Just think of Independiente or Velez in Argentina, Chelsea and Liverpool in England...most fans can't name a third or fourth team in Spain because there isn't one. Not to mention that the Spanish league stars are almost all foreigners and both Madrid and Barcelona super stars hail from Portugal and Argentina respectively. Not the case in England, Italy, Argentina and Brazil where local players shine and are anually courted by Spanish teams. The Spanish league, actually two or three teams, benefit from purchasing power and not a rich pool of local talent like bona fide world cup candidates have. Still need more? Past world cup winners benefit from players with late stage round experience from the previous world cup, experience that teams like Italy, Brazil and Argentina have during this world cup and have had when they won a world cup. Not the case with Spain.

Spain has an exciting game. I look forward to them reaching the late rounds but not winning it all. But this world cup should set them up for the future. History commands it.