Analysts and experts have been jumping on the Iberian band wagon for the upcoming World Cup 2010 in South Africa. The Spanish league has been center stage on worldwide coverage through Barcelona and Real Madrid. True the Spanish team has very talented players like Villa, Xavi, Torres and Iker Casillas but they are all returning players that failed to reach the quarter finals in 2006. A talented team that will miss Iniesta and his goal feeding passes. The unfortunate fact is no Spanish team has ever reached the finals and only once did it reach the semi finals. Mind you, only 7 teams have won a World Cup and most of those teams accomplished it initially by winning at home (Spain missed its chance in 1982). Additionally victor countries like Brazil, Argentina, and France won a world cup after having reached the final before their ultimate victory. Others like Uruguay or Italy won the world cup as hosts in the early history of the FIFA tournament. I am not suggesting it is impossible but it has never been done before and past world cups tell a completely different story about the fate of upstarts. Could there be a new winner in 2010? Most definitely; but the likely candidate should be Netherlands who continually tease their fans with a championship only to lose in the final game. More so to my point, Netherlands lost both finals to very talented host countries in Germany and Argentina.
I know, many of you don’t like history. Well then consider competition and world cup experience. Many follow Barcelona and Madrid. But those two teams play in one of the least competitive leagues in the western world. Brazil, Argentina, Italy and England have more competitive leagues where there are more than just two perennial winners like the ones mentioned in Spain. Just think of Independiente or Velez in Argentina, Chelsea and Liverpool in England...most fans can't name a third or fourth team in Spain because there isn't one. Not to mention that the Spanish league stars are almost all foreigners and both Madrid and Barcelona super stars hail from Portugal and Argentina respectively. Not the case in England, Italy, Argentina and Brazil where local players shine and are anually courted by Spanish teams. The Spanish league, actually two or three teams, benefit from purchasing power and not a rich pool of local talent like bona fide world cup candidates have. Still need more? Past world cup winners benefit from players with late stage round experience from the previous world cup, experience that teams like Italy, Brazil and Argentina have during this world cup and have had when they won a world cup. Not the case with Spain.
Spain has an exciting game. I look forward to them reaching the late rounds but not winning it all. But this world cup should set them up for the future. History commands it.
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